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Operational Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response for Multi-Scale Flood Risks in Developing Cities

The aim of this book is to contribute to understanding risk knowledge and to forecasting components of early flood warning, particularly in the environment of tropical high mountains in developing cities. Les mer
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Vår pris: 2279,-

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Leveringstid: Sendes innen 21 dager
På grunn av Brexit-tilpasninger og tiltak for å begrense covid-19 kan det dessverre oppstå forsinket levering.

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The aim of this book is to contribute to understanding risk knowledge and to forecasting components of early flood warning, particularly in the environment of tropical high mountains in developing cities. This research covers a challenge, taking into account the persistent lack of data, limited resources and often complex climatic, hydrologic and hydraulic conditions. In this research, a regional method is proposed for assessing flash flood susceptibility and for identifying debris flow predisposition at the watershed scale.
An indication of hazard is obtained from the flash flood susceptibility analysis and continually, the vulnerability and an indication of flood risk at watershed scale was obtained. Based on risk analyses, the research follows the modelling steps for flood forecasting development. Input precipitation is addressed in the environment of complex topography commonly found in mountainous tropical areas. A distributed model, a semi-distributed model and a lumped model were all used to simulate the discharges of a tropical high mountain basin with a paramo upper basin. Performance analysis and diagnostics were carried out in order to identify the most appropriate model for the study area for flood early warning. Finally, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to explore the added value of numerical weather models for flood early warning in a paramo area.

Fakta

Innholdsfortegnelse

1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Scope of the thesis
1.3 Outline of the thesis


2 Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis in mountainous peri-urban areas through morphometric and land cover indicators
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Methods and Data
2.2.1 Study Area
2.2.2 Methodology
2.2.2.1 Development of the morphometric indicator
2.2.2.2 Development of the land cover indicator
2.2.2.3 Development of a composite susceptibility index
2.3 Results
2.3.1 Estimation of the morphometric indicator for the study area
2.3.1.1 Morphometric indicator model
2.3.1.2 Assessment of appropriateness of the morphometric indicator
2.3.2 Land cover indicator
2.3.3 Combination of indicators to obtain a final susceptibility index
2.4 Discussion
2.4.1 Morphometric indicator
2.4.2 Debris flow propagation
2.4.3 Land cover indicator, composite susceptibility index and comparison of results
2.5 Conclusions


3 Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Conceptualization of Vulnerability
3.3 Methods and Data
3.3.1 Study Area
3.3.2 Methodology
3.3.2.1 Delineation of exposure areas
3.3.2.2 Choice of indicators and principal component analysis for vulnerability assessment
3.3.2.3 Sensitivity of the vulnerability indicator
3.3.2.4 Categories of recorded damage in the study area
3.3.2.5 Prioritization of watersheds
3.4 Results
3.4.1 Exposure Areas
3.4.2 Socio-economic fragility indicators
3.4.3 Lack of Resilience and coping capacity indicators
3.4.4 Physical exposure indicators
3.4.5 Vulnerability indicator
3.4.6 Prioritization of watersheds according to the qualitative risk indicator and comparison with damage records
3.4.7 Sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability indicator
3.5 Discussion
3.5.1 Exposure areas
3.5.2 Representativeness and relative importance of indicators
3.5.3 Sensitivity of the vulnerability indicator
3.5.4 Usefulness of the prioritization indicator
3.6 Conclusions


4 Spatial interpolation for real-time rainfall field estimation in areas with complex topography
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Methods and Data
4.2.1 Study Area
4.2.2 Precipitation data
4.2.3 Geostatistical interpolation procedure
4.2.3.1 Interpolation techniques
4.2.3.2 Topographic parameters as secondary variables
4.2.3.3 Cross validation and statistical criteria of comparison
4.2.3.4 Conditional Simulations
4.3 Results
4.3.1 Exploratory data analysis
4.3.2 Classification of daily datasets
4.3.3 Variogramanalysis
4.3.4 Analysis of performance of the interpolators for the individual storm

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